[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":238},["Reactive",2],{"NWB74q1rff":3,"I62jivmfm4":7,"the-compressed-spring":158,"_apollo:default":190},{"topBars":4},{"__typename":5,"data":6},"TopBarEntityResponseCollection",[],{"contents":8},{"__typename":9,"data":10},"ContentEntityResponseCollection",[11],{"__typename":12,"attributes":13},"ContentEntity",{"__typename":14,"slug":15,"isRestrictedContent":16,"contentUrl":17,"title":18,"blurb":19,"content":20,"publishDate":21,"timeToRead":22,"languages":23,"countries":37,"thumbnail":54,"heroImage":94,"author":104,"content_category":139},"Content","the-compressed-spring",false,null,"The Compressed Spring","Bitcoin volatility crashed, then exploded: inside the $2.7B short squeeze that moved crypto markets in August, by Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage","\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">On August 15, the Nasdaq CME Crypto Index's 30-day realized volatility fell to 22.0%, placing it in the lowest 0.5% of readings since July 2020 and highlighting a period of unprecedented calm in crypto markets. Ten days later, volatility surged to 43.0%, creating the largest short-liquidation event in crypto history and propelling Bitcoin from $60k to the $80k range within five days.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cstrong>NCI Annualized 30D Volatility\u003C/strong>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cimg src=\"https://hdx-website-cms-prod-upload-bucket.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/image1_1504bcfdef.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"626\" height=\"278\">\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csup>Past performance does not guarantee future results. NCI 30-day realized volatility, Jan–Aug 2026. Shaded band = 5th percentile floor (30%). Median dashed at 51.3%. Source: Nasdaq from 01 June 2020 to 31 August 2026.\u003C/sup>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">I've been saying for weeks that crypto's volatility looked like a compressed spring, one that could release in either direction. The trigger came on August 19, when the Treasury scaled up its long-bond buyback operations, and the 30-year yield fell from a 19-year high, with risk assets repricing within hours. The same week brought a burst of regulatory signals: an \u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">\u003Ca style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\" href=\"https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-76-sec-proposes-new-regulation-crypto-assets\">SEC proposal for a tailored crypto offering regime\u003C/a>\u003C/span>, \u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">\u003Ca style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\" href=\"https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0605\">Treasury-proposed rules implementing the GENIUS Act for stablecoins\u003C/a>\u003C/span>, and a \u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">\u003Ca style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\" href=\"https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-host-crypto-executives-sec-weighs-regulations-2026-08-19/\">White House meeting with crypto industry leaders alongside the SEC and CFTC chairs\u003C/a>\u003C/span>. Within 48 hours, the two theses that matter most — bitcoin as an emerging store of value in a fiscal-dominance era, and smart contract platforms as financial infrastructure — repriced violently.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Nothing about this originated inside crypto or its fundamentals. In fact, the most significant inflection points in crypto prices this year, from geopolitical tensions to the Warsh nomination as Fed chair to the Treasury buyback, were driven by events outside the asset class. No protocol failure, no fraud, no bankruptcy of a major player within the ecosystem. This last rally seems to have been driven by a liquidity event and a sentiment reversal event, not a fundamental one.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cstrong>Nasdaq CME Crypto Index Performance in 2026\u003C/strong>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cimg src=\"https://hdx-website-cms-prod-upload-bucket.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/image5_a6835d4941.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"618\" height=\"229\">\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csup>Past performance does not guarantee future results. The chart shows the NCI performance year-to-date. Prepared by Hashdex Asset Management using Nasdaq data from January 1 to August 31, 2026.\u003C/sup>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Ch2 dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">The Valley of Indifference\u003C/span>\u003C/h2>\n\u003Cp> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Volatility doesn't fall to the bottom half-percent of its historical distribution just because a market is calm or less uncertain. It falls there because nobody is willing to transact at those levels. After eight months of drawdown, the absence of buyers wasn't surprising. The question is: why did people stop selling?\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Three genuinely negative developments have landed since May, yet prices have failed to move lower. The Clarity Act stalled, with its odds of passage dropping from ~75% to ~23%. \u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">\u003Ca style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\" href=\"https://www.trmlabs.com/resources/blog/the-largest-hardware-wallet-exploit-of-2026-inside-the-usd-116-million-coldcard-hack\">The Coldcard exploit drained ~1,368 BTC from thousands of addresses\u003C/a>\u003C/span>, the largest hardware-wallet failure on record, hitting the morale of the fiercest advocates of decentralization. And \u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">\u003Ca style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\" href=\"https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/strategy-sells-3588-bitcoin-fund-dividends\">Strategy broke its long-standing \"diamond hands\" stance with four disclosed bitcoin sales below their average cost\u003C/a>\u003C/span>. Against all that, short-term holder supply is at an all-time low, which I believe is one of the main drivers of the lack of marginal sellers we’re currently witnessing.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>\u003C/strong>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cstrong>Short-Term Holders (STH) Supply During Cycle Bottoms\u003C/strong>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cimg src=\"https://hdx-website-cms-prod-upload-bucket.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/image3_88d355cd7b.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"619\" height=\"226\">\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csup>Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bitcoin STH shows the percentage of the supply that has moved over the last 155 days, serving as a proxy for short-term traders. Prepared by Hashdex Asset Management using Messari data from January 14, 2015 until August 31, 2026.\u003C/sup>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong> \u003C/strong>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">In the last few months, crypto went from greed to fear, and then to indifference. A market of indifferent long-term holders has a strong downside cushion (since they're not selling) and is highly susceptible to a short squeeze. That's why a Treasury announcement moved crypto 34% off the low while gold moved 16%, and why over \u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">\u003Ca style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\" href=\"https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/20/bearish-crypto-bets-lose-record-usd2-7-billion-as-bitcoin-surges-toward-usd70-000\">$2.7 billion in short positions were liquidated in a single session\u003C/a>\u003C/span>.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Ch2 dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">The Dispersion Problem\u003C/span>\u003C/h2>\n\u003Cp> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Here's what I tell advisors who ask why they should hold anything other than bitcoin: year-to-date, the index trails. It's down 12% while bitcoin is down 9.7%. Someone who bought only bitcoin in January is ahead by 2.3 points. \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Now look at August and you’ll notice the order has flipped entirely. SOL led at +41.8%, LINK at +39.7%, ETH at +33%. Four of seven non-bitcoin constituents beat bitcoin. And the contributions tell the story: XRP and SOL together added +0.78 percentage points to the index's +1.6 excess over BTC, which is almost as much as ETH’s +0.91 contribution on its own. This wasn't BTC carrying a basket.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cstrong>NCI Constituent Returns in August Compared to Bitcoin\u003C/strong>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csup>\u003Cimg src=\"https://hdx-website-cms-prod-upload-bucket.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/image2_61bc57f3d4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"619\" height=\"269\">\u003C/sup>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csup>Past performance does not guarantee future results. August 2026 constituent returns vs. bitcoin (+25.4%). Weights and excess contributions on the right. August returns calculated using July 31 and August 31, 2026 closing prices.  Source: Constituent settlement prices calculated by Nasdaq. Data as of 31 August 2026.\u003C/sup>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">The risk, in this environment, isn't volatility — advisors already price that in. The risk is that dispersion within the asset class is wider than the asset class's return, and leadership rotates without warning. Think of it as the crypto version of an equity index carried by two names while the median constituent loses money. Advisors know how that story ends for stock pickers: most of them underperform the index over any meaningful horizon, precisely because they can't call the rotation. In crypto, the spread between the best and worst constituents is 30 points in eight months, and the year-to-date leader was the laggard in August.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Ch2 dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">What the Bear Market Built\u003C/span>\u003C/h2>\n\u003Cp> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">If leadership cannot be called in advance, the question becomes: how do you approach this asset class? Equity investors answered that question decades ago. After a generation of star managers charging high fees for below-market returns, the evidence was overwhelming: the best response to unpredictable rotation is not a better picker; it's a rules-based, evolving index. Here's what most people missed while watching the price fall. The Nasdaq Crypto US Index held exactly two assets (bitcoin and ether) for 10 consecutive quarters. Then, over just four quarters, it grew to nine, with every reconstitution adding assets, never removing them, with HYPE joining on September 1.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong> \u003C/strong>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cstrong>NCIUS Points and Number of Constituents\u003C/strong>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cimg src=\"https://hdx-website-cms-prod-upload-bucket.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/image4_f1e45838c5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"617\" height=\"274\">\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csup>Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nasdaq Crypto US Index: constituent count (black step line, right axis) vs. index level (blue line, left axis), April 2022–August 2026. Level series ends 31 August 2026. Source: Nasdaq (NCIUSS).\u003C/sup>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">The listing standards evolved, sure. But that's not what expanded the set. What has changed is that more assets have cleared the bar, with regulated custody, real liquidity on regulated venues, CFTC-regulated derivatives infrastructure. The investable universe more than quadrupled... while the price got cut in half. That's the bear market's real story, and it isn't in the price. The index isn't built to beat bitcoin. It's built so you don't have to be right about which name leads. \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">— Samir Kerbage, Chief Investment Officer\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\"> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">______________\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>Effective January 20, 2026, the index changed its name from Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) to Nasdaq CME Crypto Index.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>This material expresses Hashdex Asset Management Ltd. and its subsidiaries and affiliates (“Hashdex”)'s opinion for informational purposes only and does not consider the investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs of one or a particular group of investors. We recommend consulting specialized professionals for investment decisions. Investors are advised to carefully read the prospectus or regulations before investing their funds.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>The information and conclusions contained in this material may be changed at any time, without prior notice. Nothing contained herein constitutes an offer, solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment management product or service. This information is not directed at or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Hashdex to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>These opinions are derived from internal studies and do not have access to any confidential information. Please note that future events may not unfold as anticipated by our team’s research and analysis. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of Hashdex.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>By receiving or reviewing this material, you agree that this material is confidential intellectual property of Hashdex and that you will not directly or indirectly copy, modify, recast, publish or redistribute this material and the information therein, in whole or in part, or otherwise make any commercial use of this material without Hashdex’s prior written consent.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>Investment in any investment vehicle and crypto assets is highly speculative and is not intended as a complete investment program. It is designed only for sophisticated persons who can bear the economic risk of the loss of their entire investment and who have limited need for liquidity in their investment. There can be no assurance that the investment vehicles will achieve its investment objective or return any capital. No guarantee or representation is made that Hashdex’s investment strategy, including, without limitation, its business and investment objectives, diversification strategies or risk monitoring goals, will be successful, and investment results may vary substantially over time.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>Nothing herein is intended to imply that the Hashdex s investment methodology or that investing any of the protocols or tokens listed in the Information may be considered “conservative,” “safe,” “risk free,” or “risk averse.” These opinions are derived from internal studies and do not have access to any confidential information. Please note that future events may not unfold as anticipated by our team’s research and analysis.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>Certain information contained herein (including financial information) has been obtained from published and unpublished sources. Such information has not been independently verified by Hashdex, and Hashdex does not assume responsibility for the accuracy of such information. Hashdex does not provide tax, accounting or legal advice. Certain information contained herein constitutes for ward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may,” “ will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue” “believe” (or the negatives thereof ) or other variations thereof. Due to various risks and uncertainties, including those discussed above, actual events or results, the ultimate business or activities of Hashdex and its investment vehicles or the actual performance of Hashdex, its investment vehicles, or digital tokens may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>As a result, investors should not rely on such forward- looking statements in making their investment decisions. None of the information contained herein has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any other governmental or self-regulatory authority. No governmental authority has opined on the merits of Hashdex’s investment vehicles or the adequacy of the information contained herein.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>Nasdaq® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular digital asset or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any digital asset or any representation about the financial condition of a digital asset. Statements regarding Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate assets before investing. ADVICE FROM A FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>","2026-09-01",4,{"__typename":24,"data":25},"LanguageRelationResponseCollection",[26,31,34],{"__typename":27,"attributes":28},"LanguageEntity",{"__typename":29,"Code":30},"Language","en",{"__typename":27,"attributes":32},{"__typename":29,"Code":33},"fr",{"__typename":27,"attributes":35},{"__typename":29,"Code":36},"de",{"__typename":38,"data":39},"CountryRelationResponseCollection",[40,45,48,51],{"__typename":41,"attributes":42},"CountryEntity",{"__typename":43,"Code":44},"Country","KY",{"__typename":41,"attributes":46},{"__typename":43,"Code":47},"EU",{"__typename":41,"attributes":49},{"__typename":43,"Code":50},"CH",{"__typename":41,"attributes":52},{"__typename":43,"Code":53},"US",{"__typename":55,"data":56},"UploadFileEntityResponse",{"__typename":57,"attributes":58},"UploadFileEntity",{"__typename":59,"name":60,"url":61,"formats":62,"size":93},"UploadFile","Gemini_Generated_Image_8y07p78y07p78y07 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