Hero's Image

The Hash Insider: US job market resiliency continues to signal more pain ahead for risk assets

The Hash Insider

The NCI closed Sunday (10/09/22) 1.9% above last week’s closing. The index’s neutral performance was influenced by ether (ETH), up 2.4 %, while bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.6%.

After an uneventful week to close out September, BTC and ETH traded at $19,205 and $1,295, respectively. Crypto markets entered the new week on a slight upward trend that began around market opening hours in North America despite unusually low trading volume.

Lower-than-expected US manufacturing figures (ISM) for September may have been responsible for the headwind that sustained the trajectory of crypto asset prices throughout Monday, as investors continued to look for signs of a faltering economy that could cast doubt on the Fed’s restrictive monetary stance. Traditional markets also registered gains on Monday, lifted by energy companies whose stocks rose as OPEC announced oil cuts.

Tuesday brought another positive day for crypto markets and stock markets. Negative economic data—this time showing job openings in the US declined to 10.1 million (expected: 10.8 million) in August—continued the early-week narrative of “bad macro news is good crypto news.”

Crypto asset prices moved sideways through choppy waters on Wednesday, a trend in place since early September whenever BTC surpasses the $20,000 mark. Nevertheless, as Wednesday drew to a close, both BTC and ETH registered their respective weekly highs of $20,420 and $1,383 despite a day in the red for traditional markets.

Thursday brought an end to the tide that had lifted crypto assets during the first half of the week, with both BTC and ETH registering modest losses in line with traditional markets. 

On Friday, however, non-farm payrolls, which showed the US job market had cooled less than expected (263,000 vs. an expected 250,000), would erase virtually all of the week’s gains, reaffirming market expectations of a 75 bp hike announcement for the FOMC meeting in November. 

Friday’s sharp selloff was followed by another uneventful weekend for crypto markets where BTC sticking close to $19,500 and ETH struggling to stay above $1,325.

 

Looking ahead

 

Thursday's CPI reading will headline this week’s macro calendar. It's unlikely that the result will be surprising enough to influence November’s FOMC meeting, but if inflation is lower than the projected 8.1% on year-over-year basis crypto markets should react positively. The week will also feature the release of the German CPI (Thursday), which markets have been monitoring with close attention in recent months as a barometer of the Ukraine war’s impact on the Eurozone economy. 

 

Other News 

 

Morgan Stanley sees continued growth of crypto ETPs

 

Morgan Stanley published (10/07) a report highlighting the continued global growth of crypto exchange traded products (ETP). According to the investment bank, there are over 180 active crypto ETPs being traded around the world, half of which were launched since the start of the crypto bear market. According to the report, the launch of these ETPs has accelerated in 2022, with an average of eight monthly launches.  Morgan Stanley believes the “bear market hasn’t deterred asset managers and financial companies from launching ways for their clients to get access to digital assets'' and predicted the number of these financial products will continue to grow.

 

Barclays remains optimistic about BTC and BTC miners

 

Barclays published (10/04) a report maintaining a Buy rating for Core Scientific (CORZ), a crypto hosting and mining company, where they noted they remain positive about the long-term viability of bitcoin (BTC). The British bank’s bullish outlook on the crypto mining company is shared by most market analysts, as evidenced by the average price target of at $5.58 (current share price: $1.30) for the crypto miner’s stock. Positive price targets for “crypto equities” are generally a sign that analysts are hopeful about the crypto market as a whole. 

 

McDonald's stores in Lugano Switzerland to start accepting Bitcoin and USDT

 

Fast food lovers in Switzerland can now purchase burgers with BTC and the stablecoin Tether (USDT) as of last week. The Swiss city of Lugano and Tether have partnered, through the Plan ₿ Foundation, to allow purchases at McDonald’s and other retailers with crypto currencies. The Plan ₿ Foundation hopes to enable crypto payments at 2,500 merchants in Lugano by the end of 2023.

 

______________________________________

The information contained herein (“Information”) may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part, in any format, without the express written approval of Hashdex Asset Management Ltd. (“Hashdex”) and its affiliates and subsidiaries (“Hashdex Group”). By accepting this document, you acknowledge and agree that all of the Information contained in this document is proprietary to Hashdex Group. While not explicitly referenced within this piece, Hashdex Group manages the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETF, Hashdex Nasdaq Ethereum ETF, Hashdex Nasdaq Bitcoin ETF, Hashdex DeFi Index Fund, Hashdex Smart Contract Platforms Index ETF and other investment vehicles focused on digital assets (collectively the “Fund” and each a “Fund”) which invests in digital tokens. The Information is not an offer to buy or sell, nor is it a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, interests in the Funds or any advisory services or any other security or to participate in any advisory services or trading strategy. If any offer and sale of securities is made, it will be pursuant to the confidential offering memorandum of the Fund (the Offering Memorandum). Any decision to make an investment in the Fund should be made after reviewing such Offering Memorandum, conducting such investigations as the investor deems necessary and consulting the investor’s own investment, legal, accounting and tax advisors in order to make an independent determination of the suitability and consequences of an investment.

 Each Fund seeks to track a relevant index. The performance of each Fund will vary from the performance of the relevant index that it seeks to track. The Information is being provided to you solely for discussion purposes and may not be used or relied on for any purpose (including, without limitation, as legal, tax or investment advice) without the express written approval of Hashdex Group. Certain statements reflect Hashdex Group’s views, estimates, opinions or predictions (which may be based on proprietary models and assumptions, including, in particular, Hashdex Group’s views on the current and future market for digital assets), and there is no guarantee that these views, estimates, opinions or predictions are currently accurate or that they will be ultimately realized. To the extent these assumptions or models are not correct or circumstances change, the actual performance of Hashdex Group and the Funds may vary substantially from, and be less than, the estimated performance. None of Hashdex Group, the Funds nor any of their respective affiliates, shareholders, partners, members, directors, officers, management, employees or representatives makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the Information or any other information (whether communicated in written or oral form) transmitted or made available to you. 

Each of the aforementioned parties expressly disclaims any and all liability relating to or resulting from the use of the Information or such other information. Except where otherwise indicated, the Information is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date and will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available, or circumstances existing or changes occurring after the date hereof. Investing in financial markets, the Funds and digital assets, including Bitcoin, DeFi tokens, and Ethereum, involves a substantial degree of risk. There can be no assurance that the investment objectives described herein will be achieved. Any investment in the Funds may result in a loss of the entire amount invested. Investment losses may occur, and investors could lose some or all of their investment. No guarantee or representation is made that Hashdex’s investment strategy, including, without limitation, its business and investment objectives, diversification strategies or risk monitoring goals, will be successful, and investment results may vary substantially over time. Nothing herein is intended to imply that the Hashdex Group’s investment methodology or that investing any of the protocols or tokens listed in the Information or the Funds may be considered “conservative,” “safe,” “risk free,” or “risk averse.” Neither historical returns nor economic, market or other performance is an indication of future results. Certain information contained herein (including financial information) has been obtained from published and non-published sources. Such information has not been independently verified by Hashdex Group, and Hashdex Group does not assume responsibility for the accuracy of such information. Hashdex Group does not provide tax, accounting or legal advice. Certain information contained herein constitutes forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue” or “believe” (or the negatives thereof) or other variations thereof. Due to various risks and uncertainties, including those discussed above, actual events or results, the ultimate business or activities of Hashdex Group or the Funds or the actual performance of Hashdex Group, the Funds, or digital tokens may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. As a result, investors should not rely on such forward- looking statements in making their investment decisions. None of the Information has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any securities administrator under any state securities laws or any other governmental or self-regulatory authority. No governmental authority has opined on the merits of the offering of any securities by the Funds or Hashdex, or the adequacy of the information contained herein. 

Logo Hashdex
The material contained on this website is for informational purposes only and Hashdex, and its affiliates, is not soliciting any action based upon such material. The material is not to be construed as investment advice nor is it to be construed as recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or product or to adopt any investment strategy. Further, the material contained on this website does not constitute a representation that the financial instruments described therein are suitable or appropriate for any person. Past performance is not an indication of any future performance. This website may contain advertising of financial products.