Market Pulse reviews the events of the past quarter, assesses market prospects, examines the inherent risks, and highlights how portfolios may benefit from these dynamics.

In Q3'26, the Nasdaq CME Crypto Index (NCI) rose 46%, while the S&P 500 gained 2% and gold nearly 4%. For weeks, even negative news failed to move prices. Then a single trigger, the US Treasury’s announcement of long-bond buybacks in August, and three days of gains were enough for the index to decouple from other asset classes.

1. The Past

Even after shocks such as Strategy’s bitcoin sales and the Coldcard hack, the NCI rose 46% over the quarter, driven by a more favorable macro backdrop and by the largest short liquidation ever recorded.

2. The Future

A weakening dollar tends to favor scarce assets and stablecoins, in a landscape where governments may accumulate bitcoin and emerging markets expand their use of the digital dollar. We are also approaching the point that matches the duration of previous bear phases.

3. Risks

The CLARITY Act now depends on the next wave of votes in the US, AI is competing with crypto for capital, and, historically, greed readings have been followed by significant drawdowns.

4. Portfolio

With 9 assets and 87% of the market covered, the Nasdaq CME Crypto Index added one more asset to its basket last quarter. In addition, our simulation indicates that trying to time market entry cost returns over time.