MARKET OBSERVATIONS

February 23, 2026 to March 1, 2026

 

NCI Performance (Weekly): The Nasdaq CME Crypto Index^TM fell 2.7%, with BTC (−3.0%), ETH (−1.4%), and SOL (−1.2%) declining modestly. A brief Iran-driven weekend selloff pressured prices but was largely absorbed; broader implications remain unclear. The macro backdrop was mixed: PPI at 3.6% effectively sealed the door on near-term rate cuts, while the 10-year yield breaking below 4% flagged growing recession concerns. Despite this, spot BTC ETFs posted a $507M single-day inflow, the largest in three weeks, suggesting institutional dip-buying.

 

Spot BTC ETFs Post $507M Single-Day Inflow, the Largest in 3 Weeks

 

The broadest multi-fund inflow day since early February, signaling institutional dip-buying rather than a single large allocator and breaking a 6-week outflow streak that had drained $4.5B from BTC ETFs in 2026.¹

 

January PPI Comes In Hot at 3.6%, Sealing Door on Near-Term Rate Cuts

 

Core PPI surged to 3.6% YoY in January, well above the 3.0% estimate. Markets now price a 96% chance of no cut at the March 18 Fed meeting.²

 

10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Below 4% for First Time Since November 2024

 

The benchmark 10-year yield fell to 3.96% on Friday, down 25bps in February, as investors fled to safety amid mounting stagflation fears. The move signals the bond market is now pricing growth slowdown over inflation risk.³