MARKET OBSERVATIONS

February 16, 2026 to February 22, 2026

 

NCI Performance (Weekly): The Nasdaq CME Crypto Index^TM declined 1.7%, narrowest weekly loss in a month, as selling pressure continued to ease. BTC (-1.5%) and ETH (-0.3%) held relatively steadily. Conflicting macro forces seem to have shaped the week: the Supreme Court’s 6-3 rulling striking down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs removed a key risk-asset overhang, but Core PCE at 3% reinforced the “higher for longer” rates narrative. Also, Harvard's $87M rotation from BTC into ETH ETFs signaled evolving institutional allocation within crypto.

 

Supreme Court Strikes Down Most of Trump Tariffs

 

SCOTUS ruled 6-3 that Trump's use of IEEPA to impose sweeping global tariffs was unconstitutional, unlocking up to $175B in potential refunds for U.S. importers. ¹

 

Core PCE Inflation Comes In Hot at 3.0% 

 

Core PCE hit 3.0% YoY in December, the highest since April 2024 and above the 2.9% forecast,  reinforcing the "higher for longer" rates narrative. ²

 

US Q4 GDP Misses at 1.4% as Government Shutdown Drags Growth

 

US Q4 GDP came in at just 1.4%, badly missing estimates and down sharply from 4.4% in Q3, largely a one-off driven by the government shutdown.³