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Volatility is no longer keeping crypto out of portfolios

Samir Kerbage

Last month, I wrote about the importance of embracing—not running from—crypto’s volatility. Volatility has been the longest running critique of this emerging asset class, and for the last decade I’ve had advisors and other professional investors tell me this is the main reason they don’t recommend a crypto allocation to their clients. 

This is starting to change. An increasing number of advisors I speak with are beginning the conversation with an understanding that they should not be scared away from crypto’s evolving volatility profile.  

Why? I think there are two major reasons. 

First, the question of whether crypto belongs in an institutional portfolio is no longer theoretical. After years of live data across multiple market cycles—including some of the most volatile macro environments in recent memory—the evidence is difficult to ignore.

The conclusions for how crypto can fit within diversified portfolios are consistent: a small to modest allocation to crypto has the potential to meaningfully improve risk-adjusted returns without introducing proportionally greater risk. 

For example, between the launch of the Nasdaq CME Crypto Index (NCI) in June 2020 and December 2025, the NCI delivered an annualized return of 46%—more than three times the S&P 500's 15% over the same period. Cumulatively, that's 803% for the NCI versus 124% for the S&P 500. But raw returns only tell part of the story. What's more instructive is the consistency. The NCI was the top-performing asset class in four out of the six years we analyzed, finishing ahead of equities, bonds, commodities, and the dollar.

 

Crypto outperformed all major traditional asset classes in four of the last six years

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Commodities are represented by the BCOM Index and Global HY is represented by LG30TRUU Index. You cannot invest directly in an index and its performance shown excludes fees, costs, and expenses incurred by actual funds. 2020 data starts June 1st, reflecting the earliest date in Nasdaq's official backtest of the NCITM. Crypto assets are highly volatile and are not backed by any government or central bank. The regulatory environment for crypto assets is evolving and uncertain, and changes in laws or regulations could adversely affect the value or liquidity of crypto assets. Elaborated by Hashdex Asset Management with data from Bloomberg from June 1st, 2020 to December 31, 2025.

 

Second, advisors are becoming more aware of the importance of putting crypto’s volatility into context. Crypto's volatility has been declining steadily. The gap between the NCI and traditional risk assets narrowed from 66% in 2021 to just 31% in 2025—a 35% reduction in five years, with the trend continuing.


NCI volatility vs. average of other risk assets: the gap has narrowed significantly 

 

Volatility data reflects past price changes. Actual volatility may differ due to market conditions, economic events, or other factors. Commodities are represented by the BCOM Index and Global HY is represented by LG30TRUU Index. The average other asset classes volatility is composed by S&P 500, Commodities, MSCI Europe and MSCI ACWI. 2020 data starts June 1st, reflecting the earliest date in Nasdaq's official backtest of the NCI. Crypto assets are highly volatile and are not backed by any government or central bank. The regulatory environment for crypto assets is evolving and uncertain, and changes in laws or regulations could adversely affect the value or liquidity of crypto assets. Elaborated by Hashdex Asset Management with data from Bloomberg from June 1st, 2020 to December 31, 2025.

 

And, when you compare the NCI to the “Mag 7” technology companies, the volatility picture looks entirely different. The NCI's annualized volatility of 59% over the 2020–2025 period places it squarely within the range of Tesla (62%), Nvidia (50%), and Meta (42%). If your portfolio already holds significant equity exposure, you are almost certainly holding assets with volatility in the same range as crypto. 

Perhaps most compelling is how effectively even a modest crypto allocation enhances portfolio outcomes. We modeled the impact of introducing the NCI into a traditional 60/40 portfolio at sizes ranging from 2.5% to 10%, allocated proportionally from both the equity and fixed income components. At a 10% NCI allocation, annualized returns rose from 7.6% to 13.4%, a 76% increase, while volatility increased by just 28%.

 

A crypto allocation has historically improved returns and Sharpe Ratios

Past performance does not guarantee future results. You cannot invest directly in an index and its performance excludes fees, costs, and expenses incurred by actual funds. The 60/40 allocation is 60% “SPX Index” and 40% “LEGATRUU Index”. NCI allocations replace x% of the 60/40 portfolio with the NCI. Rebalanced every 90 days. Elaborated by Hashdex Asset Management with data from Bloomberg from June 1st, 2020 to March 31, 2026.

 

Crypto has clearly matured considerably as an asset class, and it's exciting to hear more advisors speak about the opportunity it presents—without being scared away by its volatility. 

The real question today is how much of a portfolio allocation is appropriate given their specific objectives and constraints. Not every investor has the same risk tolerance, of course, but even a small 1% allocation is in line with crypto’s portion of global investable assets. Ultimately, the cost of under-allocation is real—not because of fear of missing out, but because the portfolio construction benefits are quantifiable and consistent. For advisors willing to engage seriously with the evidence, the case for a crypto allocation has never been stronger.

 

 

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Effective January 20, 2026, the index changed its name from Nasdaq CryptoTM Index (NCI) to Nasdaq CME Crypto Index (NCI).

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