Nasdaq CME CryptoTM Index Performance (Weekly):

The NCI fell 4.1% last week as a hawkish FOMC overshadowed positive regulatory developments. The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% but raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%, citing elevated oil prices. BTC dropped ~5% post-presser, triggering $708M in single-day spot ETF outflows. The decline came despite the SEC and CFTC issuing a landmark joint interpretation classifying 16 crypto assets, including BTC, ETH, and SOL, as digital commodities.

CIO’s view:

With rate cuts potentially pushed further out, risk assets remain under pressure, but regulatory progress is structurally significant. We expect the NCI to trade in the 3,000–3,600 range and BTC to trade between $62,000-$74,000, with an eye on the CLARITY Act's advancement and any stabilization in energy prices as key catalysts.